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SENTRY JOURNAL » Uncategorized » The false “Latino vote” narrative: You can’t lose what you never had

The false “Latino vote” narrative: You can’t lose what you never had

From the moment Mitt Romney lost the 2012 election the left with the help of the mainstream media has been shaping and advancing the narrative that the reason the Republicans cannot win elections is because they’re losing more and more of the Latino vote due to their position on immigration reform.  They claim that the more Republicans stand against immigration reform the more they will lose the Latino vote.  But how can you lose something you never had to begin with?  This narrative that the left is pushing is completely false and its real purpose is to place enough doubt about the trend of the Latino vote in the minds of Republican leaders so they will act out of fear and pass an immigration bill that grants backdoor amnesty without border security.  Once again the Republicans have failed to do their homework and are dancing to the tune the Democrats are playing.  So let’s break it down and explain why this narrative is false.

In order to lose something you must first possess it.  The Republicans can’t lose the Latino vote because they have never possessed it.  Let’s take a trip back in time in Mr. Peabody’s “Way Back Machine” to the 1976 Presidential Election.  Latinos made up a meager one percent of the electorate, but voted overwhelmingly for Jimmy Carter.  Carter garnered 83 percent while the Republican candidate Gerald Ford managed to capture only 18 percent of the Latino vote.  Remember this election was the first election after the end of the Vietnam War, Nixon resigning in disgrace, and terrible economic times.  Four years of Carter brought us the Misery Index, high inflation, high unemployment, the Iran hostage crisis and a military force that was rapidly deteriorating.

As bad is things were in 1980, Jimmy Carter still managed to capture 56 percent of the Latino vote as compared to the 35 percent Ronald Reagan received; a Democratic advantage of 21 percentage points in bad times.  In fact the highest percentage President Reagan ever achieved was 37 percent in 1984.  These numbers would not improve in the future.

In 1988 Democratic candidate Michael Dukakis enjoyed a 39 percentage point Latino vote advantage over George H.W. Bush.  In the 2000 and 2004 elections, Latinos made up roughly 8 percent of the electorate.  They overwhelmingly threw their support behind Al Gore by a margin of 27 percentage point in 2000 and John Kerry by 18 percent in 2004.  In fact even though Latinos made up 8 percent of the electorate in 2000 and 2004 and overwhelmingly threw their support behind Democratic candidates, Bush still won both.  In 2012 Latinos made of 9 percent of the electorate and Barack Obama received 71 percent of the Latino vote, one percentage point shy of the 72 percent President Clinton received in 1996.  The Republicans have never owned the Latino vote; yet since 1980 they have won five of the nine Presidential elections.

hispanic-2012-11-07-latino-vote-00-01Source: PEW RESEARCH Hispanic Center

The data doesn’t support the narrative the left is trying to push.  You can’t lose something you never had.  So why is there a big push on from Republican leaders to appease Latino voters who historically have not backed Republicans?    The only answer I can come up with is they have taken the bait and have fallen into the trap set by the Democrats.  They believe the lie and have become paralyzed with the fear that they’re going to lose something they don’t have.  Do you hear me…they believe they’re going to lose something they never had.  And worse yet they’re being misled by naive leaders in their own party.  Look, the end goal of the Democrats is to increase the numbers of a voting bloc that has shown no signs of voting for Republicans in the near future.  If the Democrats can increase the numbers of the loyal Latino voters in battle ground states and specifically Texas, the GOP is done.   This isn’t rocket science!  And the GOP needs to remember that the one thing the Democrats are good at is getting out the vote of loyal supporters.  The GOP has always struggled to get out the vote and I see nothing in the tea leaves that suggest this is going to change in the near future.  If the immigration reform bill passes and is signed into law the end of the GOP will follow soon after.  All because they tried not to lose something they never had.

What a sad way to go out.

Liberty forever, freedom for all.

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Comments
  • Steve Dennis June 17, 2013 at 5:23 AM

    The Republicans have actually bought into the narrative the MSM and the Democrats have been pushing since the election ended and I had hoped they would have been smarter than this. The numbers are right there in front of them, if you found them they can find them, and yet they are letting themselves get played for fools by the left once again.
    Steve Dennis recently posted..Are we headed towards WWIII?My Profile

    • John Carey June 17, 2013 at 6:21 PM

      The data is right there Steve. It wasn’t that hard to find. So either they’re completely incompetent in which case they need to go, totally ignorant in which case they need to go, or they are working for the Democrats in which case the need to go…let’s face it they need to go.

  • [...] Sentry Journal – From the moment Mitt Romney lost the 2012 election the left with the help of the mainstream media has been shaping and advancing the narrative that the reason the Republicans cannot win elections is because they’re losing more and more of the Latino vote due to their position on immigration reform.  They claim that the more Republicans stand against immigration reform the more they will lose the Latino vote.  But how can you lose something you never had to begin with?  This narrative that the left is pushing is completely false and its real purpose is to place enough doubt about the trend of the Latino vote in the minds of Republican leaders so they will act out of fear and pass an immigration bill that grants backdoor amnesty without border security.  Once again the Republicans have failed to do their homework and are dancing to the tune the Democrats are playing.  So let’s break it down and explain why this narrative is false. [...]

  • Infidel de Manahatta June 17, 2013 at 10:51 AM

    The Republicans must stop their obsession with the Latino vote. Naturally conservative? I don’t think so. Yes, they go to church on Sunday and have children. But I live in an Hispanic neighborhood in Manhattan and the Hispanics come from poor socialist counties in Central and South America. They are totally comfortable with government providing for them. Hence the Democratic vote.
    Infidel de Manahatta recently posted..Breaking News: Kim Kardashian Gives Birth to Demon ChildMy Profile

    • John Carey June 17, 2013 at 6:23 PM

      You nailed it Manhattan! They’re ok with big government so naturally they’re going to gravitate towards the Democrats. Why is this simple truth so foreign to Republican?.

  • Jim at Asylum Watch June 17, 2013 at 6:01 PM

    Do you get the feeling sometimes that there are Republicans who are working for the the Democrats? It sure seems that way at times.
    Jim at Asylum Watch recently posted..The Ruling Class Doesn’t Care What Others ThinkMy Profile

    • John Carey June 17, 2013 at 6:29 PM

      I was just talking about this today with a friend. We have this problem in North Dakota where liberals run as Republicans and win because they call themselves Republicans. Then when they vote on the issues they vote moderate to left on them. I see the same with pattern with politicians like McCain and Graham. They call themselves Republicans but they’re sure not conservative. These are the people that need to be purged from the party.